Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 74.7%. The most likely score is 2-0, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
Crystal PalaceCRY40.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Crystal Palace scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.0%
10.0%
9.2%
8.9%
7.9%
Arsenal 2.51 · Crystal Palace 0.77
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
66.9% to 78.0%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
1 vs 18
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Crystal Palace.
Matchweek 28
Wednesday, 3 March 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.59 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.015 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.179 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.139 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 74.7%. The draw is 16.6%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 2-0 Crystal Palace, with an estimated probability of 12.0%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?
The model gives both teams to score a 49.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 63.4% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace is scheduled for Wednesday, 3 March 2027, time provisional.