Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 60.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
ArsenalARS73.3 projected points
Aston VillaAVL52.5 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Arsenal vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.6%
10.0%
10.0%
9.0%
6.8%
Arsenal 2.03 · Aston Villa 1.00
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
54.4% to 63.8%
The Arsenal home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
2 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Arsenal and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 32
Saturday, 17 April 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.33 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.078 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.173 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.008 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Aston Villa?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 60.5%. The draw is 22.5%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 10.6%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.6% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.3% probability.
When is Arsenal vs Aston Villa?
Arsenal vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 17 April 2027, time provisional.
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