AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes AFC Bournemouth win the strongest outcome at 45.6%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Bournemouth vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.0%
9.3%
7.7%
7.2%
7.2%
Bournemouth 1.68 · Newcastle 1.29
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
38.7% to 50.4%
The Bournemouth home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Bournemouth and Newcastle.
Matchweek 29
Saturday, 13 March 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.07 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.007 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.095 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.021 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Bournemouth vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United?
AFC Bournemouth win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 45.6%. The draw is 25.7%.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 12.0%.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.9% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.1% probability.
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United?
AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 13 March 2027, time provisional.