AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes AFC Bournemouth win the strongest outcome at 48.2%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
Leeds UnitedLEE51.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Bournemouth vs Leeds scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.6%
9.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.4%
Bournemouth 1.63 · Leeds 1.12
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
40.9% to 55.9%
The Bournemouth home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 10
Current mean projected league positions for Bournemouth and Leeds.
Matchweek 9
Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.26 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.035 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.042 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.075 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction questions
Who is predicted to win AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
AFC Bournemouth win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 48.2%. The draw is 26.5%.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
The most likely exact score is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Leeds United, with an estimated probability of 12.6%.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 51.7% probability.
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United is scheduled for Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time.