AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes AFC Bournemouth win the strongest outcome at 43.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Bournemouth vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.3%
9.2%
7.8%
7.5%
7.0%
Bournemouth 1.61 · Aston Villa 1.31
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
36.6% to 50.3%
The Bournemouth home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 19
Saturday, 2 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.11 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.043 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.011 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.083 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
AFC Bournemouth win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 43.5%. The draw is 26.2%.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 12.3%.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.9% probability.
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 2 January 2027, time provisional.