Newcastle United vs Fulham prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 55.2%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
FulhamFUL47 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Fulham scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.1%
9.7%
7.6%
6.7%
6.6%
Newcastle 2.07 · Fulham 1.27
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
45.6% to 61.9%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 15
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Fulham.
Matchweek 21
Saturday, 16 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.24 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.017 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.062 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.027 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Fulham prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Fulham?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 55.2%. The draw is 22.6%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Fulham?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Fulham, with an estimated probability of 10.1%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Fulham?
The model gives both teams to score a 63.5% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 64.8% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Fulham?
Newcastle United vs Fulham is scheduled for Saturday, 16 January 2027, time provisional.