Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 49.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
Brighton & Hove AlbionBHA55.2 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Brighton scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.3%
9.5%
7.4%
7.2%
6.8%
Newcastle 1.82 · Brighton 1.29
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
40.1% to 54.6%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 7
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Brighton.
Matchweek 23
Saturday, 30 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.17 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.011 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.033 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.111 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Brighton prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 49.0%. The draw is 24.6%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion, with an estimated probability of 11.3%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The model gives both teams to score a 61.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 60.2% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion is scheduled for Saturday, 30 January 2027, time provisional.