Fulham vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Fulham win the strongest outcome at 38.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
FulhamFUL47 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Fulham vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.6%
8.5%
8.3%
6.6%
6.1%
Fulham 1.58 · Aston Villa 1.55
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
32.9% to 44.0%
The Fulham home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
15 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Fulham and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 22
Saturday, 23 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.28 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.019 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.022 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.078 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Fulham vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Fulham win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 38.0%. The draw is 25.4%.
What is the predicted score for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Fulham 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 11.6%.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 63.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 60.6% probability.
When is Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Fulham vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 23 January 2027, time provisional.