Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Brighton & Hove Albion win the strongest outcome at 51.1%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Brighton & Hove AlbionBHA60.6 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW50.5 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Brighton vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.2%
9.7%
7.8%
7.6%
6.4%
Brighton 1.86 · Newcastle 1.24
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
46.0% to 57.3%
The Brighton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
3 vs 10
Current mean projected league positions for Brighton and Newcastle.
Matchweek 12
Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.17 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.011 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.025 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.3 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Brighton vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Brighton & Hove Albion win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 51.1%. The draw is 24.4%.
What is the predicted score for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 11.2%.
Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 59.8% probability.
When is Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional.
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