Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Brighton & Hove Albion win the strongest outcome at 44.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Brighton & Hove AlbionBHA55.2 projected points
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Brighton vs Newcastle scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.8%
9.2%
7.4%
7.3%
6.9%
Brighton 1.69 · Newcastle 1.34
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
38.5% to 53.3%
The Brighton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
7 vs 9
Current mean projected league positions for Brighton and Newcastle.
Matchweek 12
Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.17 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.011 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.033 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.111 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Brighton vs Newcastle prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Brighton & Hove Albion win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 44.7%. The draw is 25.5%.
What is the predicted score for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
The most likely exact score is Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Newcastle United, with an estimated probability of 11.8%.
Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
The model gives both teams to score a 61.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.3% probability.
When is Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United is scheduled for Saturday, 28 November 2026, time provisional.