Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Brighton & Hove Albion win the strongest outcome at 44.1%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Brighton & Hove AlbionBHA55.2 projected points
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Brighton vs Bournemouth scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.5%
9.2%
8.3%
7.3%
7.3%
Brighton 1.59 · Bournemouth 1.26
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
39.3% to 51.5%
The Brighton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
7 vs 11
Current mean projected league positions for Brighton and Bournemouth.
Matchweek 20
Wednesday, 6 January 2027, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.1 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.004 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.061 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.133 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Brighton vs Bournemouth prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth?
Brighton & Hove Albion win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 44.1%. The draw is 26.5%.
What is the predicted score for Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth?
The most likely exact score is Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 AFC Bournemouth, with an estimated probability of 12.5%.
Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.9% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.2% probability.
When is Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth?
Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth is scheduled for Wednesday, 6 January 2027, time provisional.