Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 55.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Aston VillaAVL52.5 projected points
FulhamFUL42.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Aston Villa vs Fulham scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.9%
9.9%
8.5%
8.0%
6.4%
Aston Villa 1.95 · Fulham 1.15
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
49.4% to 60.1%
The Aston Villa home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
8 vs 17
Current mean projected league positions for Aston Villa and Fulham.
Matchweek 9
Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.28 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.019 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.073 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.002 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 55.0%. The draw is 23.6%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
The most likely exact score is Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham, with an estimated probability of 10.9%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.5% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 59.9% probability.
When is Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa vs Fulham is scheduled for Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
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