AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes AFC Bournemouth win the strongest outcome at 40.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
AFC BournemouthBOU45.9 projected points
Brighton & Hove AlbionBHA60.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Bournemouth vs Brighton scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.5%
8.9%
7.8%
7.7%
6.6%
Bournemouth 1.53 · Brighton 1.35
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
35.7% to 44.4%
The Bournemouth home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
15 vs 3
Current mean projected league positions for Bournemouth and Brighton.
Matchweek 13
Wednesday, 2 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.1 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.004 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.049 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.293 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Bournemouth vs Brighton prediction questions
Who is predicted to win AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
AFC Bournemouth win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 40.7%. The draw is 26.6%.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The most likely exact score is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion, with an estimated probability of 12.5%.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The model gives both teams to score a 59.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.0% probability.
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion is scheduled for Wednesday, 2 December 2026, time provisional.
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