AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes AFC Bournemouth win the strongest outcome at 46.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
Brighton & Hove AlbionBHA55.2 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Bournemouth vs Brighton scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.4%
9.4%
8.5%
7.7%
7.0%
Bournemouth 1.64 · Brighton 1.22
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
39.5% to 51.0%
The Bournemouth home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 7
Current mean projected league positions for Bournemouth and Brighton.
Matchweek 13
Wednesday, 2 December 2026, time provisional
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.1 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.004 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.061 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.133 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Bournemouth vs Brighton prediction questions
Who is predicted to win AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
AFC Bournemouth win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 46.3%. The draw is 26.2%.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The most likely exact score is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion, with an estimated probability of 12.4%.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.7% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.5% probability.
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion is scheduled for Wednesday, 2 December 2026, time provisional.