# The Football Simulator X Growth Playbook

## Goal

Build a trusted football-data account that earns attention through useful,
surprising evidence. Virality cannot be guaranteed. The repeatable advantage is
to publish quickly, stay accurate, learn from every post and compound the
formats that produce meaningful engagement and site conversions.

## Automatic publishing system

- Two daily evergreen posts cover the strongest current model stories.
- A separate material-signal post can publish immediately after a verified data
  update goes live.
- Every post has a unique template ID and UTM attribution.
- Native X engagement is read back when the API plan allows it.
- Better-performing templates receive more future distribution, while one in
  five selections remains exploratory so new formats still get tested.
- If metrics are unavailable, publishing safely falls back to a balanced
  rotation.
- Material posts are duplicate-safe by signal ID.
- A three-hour material-post cap prevents a busy news cycle from becoming spam.

## What qualifies as a material signal

These are editorial thresholds, not statistical significance claims. A post can
qualify when a verified update produces at least one of the following:

- 2 percentage points or more in title, top-four, European-place or relegation
  probability.
- 1.0 projected point or more for a club.
- A move of two or more projected table positions.
- 1.5 percentage points or more in Golden Boot probability.
- A completed result that changes a major race or creates a counterintuitive
  model conclusion.
- An officially confirmed transfer with a meaningful first-team model effect.
- A bookmaker move that changes model value status, with offered terms freshly
  verified where relevant.
- A major product, methodology or competition-coverage release.

Unconfirmed transfers can be monitored as discovery signals, but they never
become forecast inputs or automatic headlines.

## Post anatomy

1. Lead with one striking number or model conclusion.
2. Translate it into a human football consequence.
3. Ask one specific question that a supporter can answer.
4. Link to the relevant evidence page.
5. Use no hashtag by default, or one highly relevant hashtag when it genuinely
   helps discovery. Never stack generic tags.

Statistics can increase sports-post engagement, but research also suggests that
sterile data can reduce enjoyment. Pairing the number with a consequence or
question keeps the post useful and discussable.

## Content mix

- 35% major probability movement and race updates.
- 20% counterintuitive model conclusions and respectful debates.
- 20% confirmed transfers, player projections and availability effects.
- 15% fixtures, results and market-versus-model disagreements.
- 10% methodology, accuracy and product proof.

Controversy must come from evidence. Use "the model disagrees" or "is this gap
too wide?" rather than rage bait, insults or certainty claims.

## Visual system

- Design for mobile first because X reports that most of its audience uses a
  mobile device.
- Prefer 16:9 or 1:1 media, one lead number, large type and two to four concise
  supporting proof points.
- Use a clear information hierarchy: label, headline, lead statistic,
  supporting context and source or methodology footer.
- Never use a button-shaped call to action in static media. Use plain text such
  as "FULL MODEL AT" with the domain because the artwork itself is not
  interactive.
- Treat each graphic as a compact data product, with aligned cards, consistent
  spacing and enough context to remain useful when viewed without the post
  text.
- The site supplies route-specific 1200 x 630 link cards from the live model.
- Use short video only when motion explains the change. Keep it under 15 seconds,
  create movement immediately and add captions.
- The 1500 x 500 profile header has been tested at standard mobile width and
  with X's documented 60-pixel top/bottom crop.

## Timing and iteration

- Keep the existing 08:00 and 18:00 Europe/London slots as the initial global
  coverage test.
- Compare morning and evening performance after at least 20 posts per slot.
- Review outcomes weekly, not after one viral outlier.
- Judge formats using impressions, replies, reposts, quotes, bookmarks, profile
  clicks, site visits and sign-ups.
- Give replies, quotes and reposts more weight than passive likes.
- Keep at least 20% of selections exploratory.
- Refresh the template bank monthly and retire formats that remain weak after a
  fair sample.
- Reply to good-faith comments promptly with a useful extra statistic. Do not
  automate repetitive replies or engagement bait.

## Primary research

- X header image guidance: https://help.x.com/en/managing-your-account/common-issues-when-uploading-profile-photo
- X organic best practices: https://business.x.com/en/basics/organic-best-practices
- X creative best practices: https://business.x.com/en/advertising/creative-best-practices
- X recommendation algorithm: https://github.com/xai-org/x-algorithm
- X developer automation rules: https://docs.x.com/developer-guidelines
- X post metrics: https://docs.x.com/x-api/fundamentals/metrics
- Buffer timing and platform benchmark data: https://buffer.com/resources/buffer-data/
- Peer-reviewed sports statistics and engagement study: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21674795241299026
