# The Football Simulator Instagram Playbook

## Positioning

The account turns verified model movement into clear visual football stories. It should look like a probability desk, not a generic tips page.

## Core formats

1. Portrait data card, 1080 by 1350. Use for the main feed because it occupies more mobile screen space than a square.
2. Story, 1080 by 1920. Use for daily reminders, polls and links.
3. Carousel. Lead with one surprising claim, then show the probability, comparison, explanation, evidence and link.
4. Reel. Use only when motion adds meaning, such as a title race changing through time.

## Publishing rhythm

- Publish four planned feed posts per week, normally Monday, Wednesday, Friday
  and Sunday in Europe/London. This sits inside the current evidence-led range
  of three to five feed posts per week and avoids manufacturing a daily story.
- Use Stories for lighter daily signals and polls.
- Publish an additional feed post for a verified material transfer, completed result or probability movement.
- Cap feed publishing at two posts in one Europe/London calendar day. This is a
  safety ceiling, not a target.
- A material update replaces the routine post for that day when it lands first.
  A later material update can still publish immediately if the daily ceiling is
  not already reached.
- Never publish the same normalized caption twice, even when a campaign key,
  tracked link or publishing retry changes.
- Avoid posting a number merely to fill a slot.

## Carousel sequence

1. Hook: one surprising, defensible statement.
2. Proof: the current probability or projected points.
3. Comparison: before versus after, or club A versus club B.
4. Why: the verified input that changed.
5. Boundary: what the model does not know yet.
6. Call to action: ask for a prediction and point to the full model.

## Caption rules

- Keep every caption at or below Instagram's 2,200-character publishing limit.
- Put the most interesting number inside the opening 125 characters so the hook survives the mobile feed preview.
- Prefer 600 to 1,200 characters when the post needs explanation. Shorter is fine when the visual carries the full story.
- Explain the cause before adding methodology.
- Ask one specific question that invites football disagreement.
- Use three to five relevant hashtags, not a long generic block.
- Keep the website link in the profile. Feed captions should say "link in bio" rather than printing a non-clickable URL. Use tracked links for Stories where available.
- Never describe an unconfirmed report as a completed transfer or model input.

## Hashtag strategy

Instagram limits captions to five hashtags and recommends a small number of
specific tags. Use three to five tags drawn from the actual story:

1. One event tag, such as `#TransferNews`, `#TitleRace`,
   `#RelegationBattle`, `#GoldenBoot`, `#GameDay` or `#BettingValue`.
2. Up to two common club tags when clubs are central to the story, such as
   `#LFC`, `#AFC`, `#MCFC` or `#MUFC`.
3. One competition tag, normally `#PremierLeague`.
4. One discovery tag that accurately describes the product, normally
   `#FootballAnalysis` or `#FootballData`.

Never use broad trend tags that do not match the post. Rotate the mix with the
subject and review non-follower reach, shares, saves and profile visits monthly.
The hashtag block supports discovery, while the visual, opening statistic and
supporter question do the main creative work.

## Visual quality bar

- Build every feed graphic around one lead claim, two to four supporting proof points and a clear source or methodology line.
- Use a strong information hierarchy: eyebrow, headline, lead statistic, supporting context, then footer.
- Static artwork must never use a button-shaped call to action. A button implies interactivity that does not exist in the feed.
- Use a plain footer such as "FULL MODEL IN BIO" alongside the domain, separated by a rule rather than enclosed in a pill.
- Keep decorative football imagery secondary to the data. Never let it reduce legibility or make the page look like a generic betting tipster account.
- Preserve at least 70 pixels of side clearance and keep essential copy inside the central mobile-safe area.
- Reuse the polished control-room card system for introduction, coverage, model movement and methodology posts.

## Learning loop

Review reach, non-follower reach, saves, shares, profile visits and follows per reach after 24 and 72 hours. Saves and shares matter more than raw likes for data posts. Keep a template for at least three samples before judging it. Promote formats with high shares per reach, but preserve one exploration slot in every five posts.

Vary feed energy across breaking verified news, bold model movement, calm
explainers, head-to-head comparisons, supporter debates and market-versus-model
stories. Keep the evidence standard consistent while changing the hook, layout
and question so the feed does not feel automated.

Prioritise carousels for explainers and before-and-after model movement. Current
2026 benchmarks show carousels leading Instagram engagement and saves, while
Reels lead comment rate. Use Reels when motion or a person explaining the model
adds meaning, not as a compulsory format.

## Research references

- Instagram recommendations favour original content: https://creators.instagram.com/blog/instagram-recommendations-eligibility-tips-creators
- Instagram reach guidance on relevant keywords and hashtags: https://creators.instagram.com/blog/tips-for-improving-your-reach
- Buffer's 2026 frequency benchmark of three to five feed posts per week: https://buffer.com/resources/social-media-frequency-guide/
- Buffer's 2026 guidance to spread posts rather than publish back to back: https://buffer.com/resources/instagram-algorithms/
- Socialinsider's 2026 format benchmark, with carousels leading overall engagement: https://www.socialinsider.io/social-media-benchmarks/instagram
- Common Premier League club tags: https://www.blinkfire.com/publisher/leaguehashtags/english_premier_league

## Accessibility

Keep important text inside the central safe area. Use high contrast, large type and concise alt text. Never put the only copy in the image; the caption must repeat the key statistic.

## Automation boundary

Automated publishing requires an Instagram Professional account, a Meta app, `instagram_business_basic`, `instagram_business_content_publish`, the Instagram account ID and a valid long-lived user access token. The image URL must be publicly accessible. Publishing remains disabled until all fields are configured and a dry run succeeds.
