{"product":"THE FOOTBALL SIMULATOR","season":"2026/27","modelVersion":"HORIZON 6.2","generatedAt":"2026-09-08T15:57:21.000Z","simulations":100000,"inputHash":"07e4445c","convergence":{"maximumProbabilityError":0.0031,"titleStandardError":0.0031,"stable":true},"availability":[{"player":"Leon Goretzka","club":"Aston Villa","status":"Ruled out until after the 21 September to 6 October international break","confirmedAt":"2026-09-07","expectedMatchesMissed":2,"plausibleMatchesMissed":[2,2],"assumptionConfidence":0.9,"officialSource":"https://www.avfc.co.uk/news/2026/september/07/prematch-club-brugge-team-news/","assumption":"Aston Villa ruled Goretzka out until after the combined 21 September to 6 October international break. The model therefore removes him from Villa's two remaining league fixtures before that break."},{"player":"Richarlison","club":"Tottenham Hotspur","status":"Omitted from Tottenham's Premier League squad for the first half of 2026/27","confirmedAt":"2026-09-03","expectedMatchesMissed":16,"plausibleMatchesMissed":[16,16],"assumptionConfidence":0.95,"officialSource":"https://x.com/SpursOfficial/status/2095557901985190028","assumption":"Tottenham's final registration omits Richarlison for the first half of the season. The model treats him as unavailable for the 16 Premier League fixtures before January, with a depth-weighted effect because Spurs added several attacking options and he was not guaranteed to start."},{"player":"Joe Rodon","club":"Leeds United","status":"Expected to miss eight to ten weeks","confirmedAt":"2026-09-03","expectedMatchesMissed":7,"plausibleMatchesMissed":[6,9],"assumptionConfidence":0.8,"officialSource":"https://www.leedsunited.com/en/news/outstanding-job-daniel-discusses-deadline-day-rodon-injury-and-more","assumption":"Daniel Farke confirmed an eight-to-ten-week hamstring absence. The baseline uses seven league matches missed, with a six-to-nine-match planning range."},{"player":"Haji Wright","club":"Coventry City","status":"Expected to miss up to three months","confirmedAt":"2026-08-19","expectedMatchesMissed":10,"plausibleMatchesMissed":[8,12],"assumptionConfidence":0.75,"officialSource":"https://talksport.com/football/4524321/frank-lampard-coventry-haji-wright-injury/","assumption":"Frank Lampard confirmed a serious quadriceps injury with an absence of up to three months. The baseline uses ten league matches missed, with an eight-to-twelve-match planning range."},{"player":"William Saliba","club":"Arsenal","status":"Out for an extended period","confirmedAt":"2026-07-22","expectedMatchesMissed":6,"plausibleMatchesMissed":[4,10],"assumptionConfidence":0.62,"officialSource":"https://www.arsenal.com/news/medical-update-william-saliba-aVUca3q2han2","assumption":"Arsenal confirmed an extended rehabilitation period without a return date. The baseline uses six league matches missed from matchweek one, with a four-to-ten-match planning range."}],"clubs":[{"code":"ARS","name":"Arsenal","projectedRank":1,"meanPoints":74.9,"pointsInterval":[62,88],"titleProbability":0.49637,"topFourProbability":0.9311400000000001,"topSixProbability":0.9801900000000001,"relegationProbability":0.00001},{"code":"MCI","name":"Manchester City","projectedRank":2,"meanPoints":71.4,"pointsInterval":[58,85],"titleProbability":0.29535,"topFourProbability":0.85024,"topSixProbability":0.94455,"relegationProbability":0.00005},{"code":"LIV","name":"Liverpool","projectedRank":3,"meanPoints":64.7,"pointsInterval":[51,78],"titleProbability":0.09083,"topFourProbability":0.5941,"topSixProbability":0.7941299999999999,"relegationProbability":0.00103},{"code":"CHE","name":"Chelsea","projectedRank":4,"meanPoints":61.4,"pointsInterval":[47,76],"titleProbability":0.04516,"topFourProbability":0.42233,"topSixProbability":0.6435,"relegationProbability":0.00575},{"code":"MUN","name":"Manchester United","projectedRank":5,"meanPoints":61,"pointsInterval":[47,75],"titleProbability":0.04016,"topFourProbability":0.41283000000000003,"topSixProbability":0.64058,"relegationProbability":0.00643},{"code":"NEW","name":"Newcastle United","projectedRank":6,"meanPoints":56.4,"pointsInterval":[43,70],"titleProbability":0.0133,"topFourProbability":0.20851999999999998,"topSixProbability":0.41574,"relegationProbability":0.02084},{"code":"BRE","name":"Brentford","projectedRank":7,"meanPoints":52.8,"pointsInterval":[40,66],"titleProbability":0.00341,"topFourProbability":0.09541,"topSixProbability":0.24614,"relegationProbability":0.04365},{"code":"BOU","name":"AFC Bournemouth","projectedRank":8,"meanPoints":52.3,"pointsInterval":[39,66],"titleProbability":0.00348,"topFourProbability":0.09874,"topSixProbability":0.23709,"relegationProbability":0.05326},{"code":"AVL","name":"Aston Villa","projectedRank":9,"meanPoints":51.4,"pointsInterval":[38,65],"titleProbability":0.00231,"topFourProbability":0.07529,"topSixProbability":0.19774,"relegationProbability":0.061200000000000004},{"code":"BHA","name":"Brighton & Hove Albion","projectedRank":10,"meanPoints":50.5,"pointsInterval":[37,64],"titleProbability":0.00215,"topFourProbability":0.06606000000000001,"topSixProbability":0.17367000000000002,"relegationProbability":0.07619},{"code":"LEE","name":"Leeds United","projectedRank":11,"meanPoints":50.3,"pointsInterval":[37,64],"titleProbability":0.0031,"topFourProbability":0.06619,"topSixProbability":0.16706,"relegationProbability":0.08696000000000001},{"code":"EVE","name":"Everton","projectedRank":12,"meanPoints":49.4,"pointsInterval":[36,63],"titleProbability":0.00162,"topFourProbability":0.0496,"topSixProbability":0.14159,"relegationProbability":0.10058},{"code":"NFO","name":"Nottingham Forest","projectedRank":13,"meanPoints":49,"pointsInterval":[36,62],"titleProbability":0.00116,"topFourProbability":0.04521,"topSixProbability":0.12634,"relegationProbability":0.09814},{"code":"TOT","name":"Tottenham Hotspur","projectedRank":14,"meanPoints":46.5,"pointsInterval":[33,60],"titleProbability":0.00061,"topFourProbability":0.02667,"topSixProbability":0.08115,"relegationProbability":0.19224000000000002},{"code":"CRY","name":"Crystal Palace","projectedRank":15,"meanPoints":46.1,"pointsInterval":[33,59],"titleProbability":0.00033,"topFourProbability":0.01868,"topSixProbability":0.06323999999999999,"relegationProbability":0.18217999999999998},{"code":"SUN","name":"Sunderland","projectedRank":16,"meanPoints":43.5,"pointsInterval":[31,56],"titleProbability":0.0001,"topFourProbability":0.00848,"topSixProbability":0.03229,"relegationProbability":0.28143999999999997},{"code":"IPS","name":"Ipswich Town","projectedRank":17,"meanPoints":42.8,"pointsInterval":[28,57],"titleProbability":0.00023,"topFourProbability":0.01287,"topSixProbability":0.04549,"relegationProbability":0.34343},{"code":"HUL","name":"Hull City","projectedRank":18,"meanPoints":42.7,"pointsInterval":[29,56],"titleProbability":0.00017,"topFourProbability":0.00959,"topSixProbability":0.037430000000000005,"relegationProbability":0.34453},{"code":"FUL","name":"Fulham","projectedRank":19,"meanPoints":42.6,"pointsInterval":[29,56],"titleProbability":0.00016,"topFourProbability":0.0078000000000000005,"topSixProbability":0.030490000000000003,"relegationProbability":0.32023999999999997},{"code":"COV","name":"Coventry City","projectedRank":20,"meanPoints":33,"pointsInterval":[20,46],"titleProbability":0,"topFourProbability":0.00025,"topSixProbability":0.00159,"relegationProbability":0.7818499999999999}],"openingFixtures":[{"fixtureId":"1-ARS-COV","kickoff":"2026-08-21T20:00:00+01:00","home":"Arsenal","away":"Coventry City","homeWinProbability":1,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":0,"modalScore":[3,0]},{"fixtureId":"1-HUL-MUN","kickoff":"2026-08-22T12:30:00+01:00","home":"Hull City","away":"Manchester United","homeWinProbability":1,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":0,"modalScore":[2,0]},{"fixtureId":"1-EVE-CRY","kickoff":"2026-08-22T15:00:00+01:00","home":"Everton","away":"Crystal Palace","homeWinProbability":1,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":0,"modalScore":[2,0]},{"fixtureId":"1-IPS-SUN","kickoff":"2026-08-22T15:00:00+01:00","home":"Ipswich Town","away":"Sunderland","homeWinProbability":1,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":0,"modalScore":[2,1]},{"fixtureId":"1-NFO-LEE","kickoff":"2026-08-22T15:00:00+01:00","home":"Nottingham Forest","away":"Leeds United","homeWinProbability":0,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":1,"modalScore":[0,1]},{"fixtureId":"1-BRE-TOT","kickoff":"2026-08-22T17:30:00+01:00","home":"Brentford","away":"Tottenham Hotspur","homeWinProbability":1,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":0,"modalScore":[3,0]},{"fixtureId":"1-BHA-AVL","kickoff":"2026-08-23T14:00:00+01:00","home":"Brighton & Hove Albion","away":"Aston Villa","homeWinProbability":1,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":0,"modalScore":[4,0]},{"fixtureId":"1-MCI-BOU","kickoff":"2026-08-23T14:00:00+01:00","home":"Manchester City","away":"AFC Bournemouth","homeWinProbability":1,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":0,"modalScore":[2,1]},{"fixtureId":"1-NEW-LIV","kickoff":"2026-08-23T16:30:00+01:00","home":"Newcastle United","away":"Liverpool","homeWinProbability":0,"drawProbability":1,"awayWinProbability":0,"modalScore":[2,2]},{"fixtureId":"1-FUL-CHE","kickoff":"2026-08-24T20:00:00+01:00","home":"Fulham","away":"Chelsea","homeWinProbability":0,"drawProbability":0,"awayWinProbability":1,"modalScore":[2,3]}],"topGoalscorer":{"access":"public-preview","proUrl":"/pricing","modelVersion":"SCORER 1.0","inputHash":"ad2c5541","simulations":100000,"players":[{"player":"Erling Haaland","club":"Manchester City","meanGoals":25,"goalsInterval":[15,36],"winProbability":0.4678},{"player":"Alexander Isak","club":"Liverpool","meanGoals":19,"goalsInterval":[11,28],"winProbability":0.1564},{"player":"Igor Thiago","club":"Brentford","meanGoals":16.9,"goalsInterval":[10,25],"winProbability":0.0828},{"player":"Benjamin Šeško","club":"Manchester United","meanGoals":14.3,"goalsInterval":[8,21],"winProbability":0.0329},{"player":"Yoane Wissa","club":"Newcastle United","meanGoals":14.4,"goalsInterval":[8,22],"winProbability":0.0327}]},"methodology":"/methodology","disclaimer":"Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or betting advice."}